"On Election Day, Nobody Knows Anything" by Daniel Guss
@TheGussReport - At 6:43 pm on Election Day in 2016, Frank Luntz was one of the highest-profile political pollsters in America and tweeted his emphatic call that Hillary Clinton would soon be the next President of the United States.
How today’s election turns out in Los Angeles or anywhere else is — at best — a guess because polling is far more complex now than in 2016.
Pollsters misread people. They ask poorly structured questions, whether accidentally or misleadingly by design. And thanks to cancel culture, people are now less inclined to share their views with strangers… and even with friends and neighbors.
In Los Angeles, there isn’t a single officeholder who I look at and think this politician has it together and is acting purely in the greater public’s best interest. LA City Hall found the time to bury itself (and us) in federal indictments and racism scandals. Never lose sight of the fact that the LA City Council unanimously endorsed Nury Martinez to be its president before her disgraceful resignation last month. They are all culpable for what City Hall smells like today. We are poorly represented by the politicians at the County of Los Angeles and up in Sacramento, too.
No, our politicians are primarily interested in helping themselves and usually only their group(s).
Just not the rest of us.
Isn’t that right, Ms. Martinez?
That may explain why John Kobylt of “The John and Ken Show” on KFI-AM 640 emphasizes that Los Angeles has a bonafide emergency to confront today. And he is spot-on.
Mayoral candidate Karen Bass is a clear continuation of the status quo. Her opponent Rick Caruso is a change agent. I don’t see how Caruso loses because he is eminently qualified and, just as importantly, he isn’t a politician but can read them like a book.
The race for City Controller is just as fascinating and every bit as important. Paul Koretz is a foot-dragging politician without a shred of experience let alone a drop of interest in investigating City Hall corruption and waste. He boasts of a crony endorsement from a former cocaine addict and another from an attempted insurance fraudster but has no published plans for improving LA’s crises. I don’t see how his opponent, CPA Kenneth Mejia, loses.
Like Caruso, Mejia is not a politician. But while his energetic campaign boasts of endorsements from the LA Times and La Opinión, there are two numbers that tell me he will win convincingly.
Since 2016, Mejia, who is half Koretz’s age and was born in the digital era, has amassed 27,500 Twitter followers.
Koretz, framing his nepotistic career on the public dole as a stodgy “lifetime of public service” without anything substantial to show for it, only scraped together 62.
Good luck winning higher office in 2022 with a low-wattage campaign with virtually no social media presence. And in case you're wondering, the last time the Koretz campaign tweeted from this account was June 10th.
As for D.C., while many downplay a red wave, if one doesn’t happen in this environment, when would one ever take place? I will be surprised if the GOP winds up with any fewer than 54 seats in the U.S. Senate, barring a runoff in Georgia between Dem incumbent Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker. In the House, my number for the GOP is 235.
But as I wrote at the top, on election day, nobody knows anything.
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(Daniel Guss, MBA, was nominated for three 2022 LA Press Club awards and was a runner-up in 2021 and 2020. He has contributed to Mayor Sam, CityWatchLA, KFI AM-640, iHeartMedia, 790-KABC, Cumulus Media, KCRW, Huffington Post, Los Angeles Daily News, Los Angeles Magazine, Movieline Magazine, Emmy Magazine, Los Angeles Business Journal, Pasadena Star-News, Los Angeles Downtown News and the Los Angeles Times in its sports, opinion, entertainment and Sunday Magazine sections among other publishers.)